Tropical cyclones have a significant impact across the Southwest Pacific, with the season officially starting in November and lasting until the end of April. The collective guidance summarised by NIWA suggests a moderate to strong La Niña is very likely (93% chance), with the likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions being low (22% chance), during mid-summer through to early autumn. Monthly Weather Review, 136: 3637-3654. Free phone within New Zealand: 0800 RING NIWA (0800 746 464), Copyright, NIWA. News Item Content. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE forecast:  ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates 80% (near normal amounts) of seasonal accumulated cyclone energy, a metric derived from tropical cyclone intensity and duration, across the basin as a whole. On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 550km of New Zealand each year. The average temperate hovers around 20-27 degrees Celsius year-round and there’s an average of 345 sunshine days annually. It was also too early to tell whether any possible remnants could impact New Zealand, but he said there was no threat to the country this week. Wheeler, 2008. TC tracks for past seasons similar to our expectations covered a wide region both east and west of and including the International Date Line (~165°E – 165°W) during extra-tropical transition (ETT) exiting the tropics at 25°S latitude (Diamond et al., 2013). The system was the eighth cyclone and the fifth severe tropical cyclone of the 2002-03 South Pacific cyclone season. The average temperate hovers around 20-27 degrees Celsius year-round and there’s an average of 345 sunshine days annually. Expected TC counts are summarised for the Southwest Pacific (panel a) and island-scale and sub-regional locations (panel b). Future work will evaluate (and validate) the outcome of each individual model vs the consensus-based approach. Cyclone Cook has formed over Vanuatu and is predicted to intensify to category three as it approaches New Caledonia on Monday. New Caledonia also experiences earthquakes, tsunamis and bushfires. In addition, subjective qualification of activity (and associated risk) also recognises the small differences between the actual TC counts for the analogue composites and climatological values. This list may not reflect recent changes . An area of normal to above normal activity is indicated by some of the guidance about French Polynesia. The new model could improve The climatological relationship between tropical cyclones in the southwest Pacific and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The Southwest Pacific basin covers 135˚E to 120˚W, therefore the forecast generated by NIWA extends 25˚ westward than the ECMWF forecast domain. NIWA’s Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook zeros in on New Caledonia as the focal point for TC genesis this season. Scientific Reports, 10, 11286, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67646-7. In New Caledonia, the hot season is from December to March. The South Pacific Ocean recently moved into tropical cyclone season. The interplay of hemispheric-scale atmospheric circulation with the timing of short-term Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity on a 30 to 50-day cycle has significant bearing on regional TC activity. New Caledonia Cyclone Rona–Frank affected two thirds of New Caledonia's Grande Terre island between 20–21 February. Find out more about our data sources. It does not take a direct hit or a severe cyclone to cause significant damage or life-threatening weather. During weather events of this kind, sports activities are obviously strongly discouraged or prohibited depending on the official warning level. Although Saturday would clear and a high of 21C is predicted, further rain would set in on Sunday. Diamond, P.R. The cyclone season in the Pacific is usually between October and May, but cyclones can occur at other times. Chappell, and J. Renwick, 2014. More about tropical storms People living in Fiji, New Zealand, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, Tonga and other island nations in the Southwest Pacific will have more months to prepare for tropical cyclones, thanks to a new outlook model published in Scientific Reports. Real-time MJO monitoring is also available from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/. Much of New Zealand is in desperate need of rain, with widespread drought in the upper North Island. By night, it can cool down to below 60°F. In addition, the subtropical jet and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ[1]) mutually interact and contribute to shear (which can disorganise cyclone systems) during extra-tropical transition. We identified ten ex-tropical cyclones using five analogue seasons in this outlook that passed close to New Zealand, which gives a rounded average of 2 ex-tropical cyclones per year. During the season the most intense tropical cyclone was Severe Tropical Cyclone Beti, which reached a minimum pressure of 935 hPa (27.61 inHg) as it affected New Caledonia. Renwick, 2013. New Caledonia weather and climate Whether your stay in New Caledonia falls during the hot season or the cool season, you can be sure of a delightful semi-tropical climate, with temperatures and sunshine guaranteed to make your holiday perfect! Cyclones can have a devastating impact. TCO-SP (University of Newcastle) deterministic model summary. b Average TC counts calculated for November-April TC season. Expected TC count including probable range (95% confidence intervals) for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season based on TCO-SP (Magee et al., 2020). Collectively, this supports a near normal number of TCs (category 1 or higher) and at least a near normal amount of severe TCs (category 3 or higher) across the Southwest Pacific basin for the 2020/21 tropical cyclone season. The system that was to become Cyclone Freda was first classified on … And in Dunedin, there would be fine weather until showers set in on Friday, with the temperature dropping down to a high of just 14C. Model SST, rainfall, and air pressure guidance favour near average TC activity for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season. However the south of the South Island is still assessing flood damage after widespread flooding caused by torrential rain last week. New Zealand also faces a higher risk of being battered by ex-tropical cyclones. Normal or slightly reduced activity is expected for Tonga, Wallis & Futuna, and Samoa. Diamond, H.J., A.M. Lorrey, K.R. It's expected to be a cloudy weekend, however a high of 28C is forecast on Sunday. December 14, 2020. by marekkucera. What about cyclones in New Caledonia? Therefore, all communities should remain alert and well-prepared for severe TC events. 2020/21 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP) ... New Caledonia 2.8 2.6 -7% Near-Normal 74% 26% Vanuatu 2.4 2.6 8% Near-Normal 52% 48% Tonga 2.0 1.4 -30% Below-normal 81% 19% Papua New Guinea 1.6 1.0 -38% Below-normal 92% 8% Northern New Zealand 0.4 0.7 75% Above-normal 49% 51% dels N SWP … The historic long-term seasonal average is just over 10 named cyclones for the SW Pacific basin. A synthesis of model atmospheric and SST guidance favour near average TC activity for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season. Table 1: Island Climate Update (ICU) consensus outlook for November 2020-April 2021 tropical cyclone activity based on combining NIWA analogue model, international dynamical climate model and TCO-SP deterministic statistical model outlook results. Tropical Cyclone Oma is predicted to produce heavy surf affecting the coasts of Australia, New Caledonia, and Vanuatu as of Monday, February 18. The rounded average interaction for New Zealand with an ex-tropical cyclone is two named systems per season. The outlook suggests New Caledonia should prepare for stronger cyclone activity. A tsunami can arrive within minutes of a tremor or earthquake. Cyclone season is November to May, but cyclones can occur at any time. Originally, the storm moved … Classification of synchronous oceanic and atmospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for palaeoclimate reconstruction. In the 50 years since Cyclone … The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. This owes to a moderate-to-strong La Niña signal, which the models are capturing, increasing forecast confidence. The consensus forms the basis for the full season (November-April) outlook for Southwest Pacific TC activity (and risk) for the 2020/21 season. Language; Watch; Edit; Pages in category "Tropical cyclones in New Caledonia" The following 22 pages are in this category, out of 22 total. Difference between expected and long-term average, SE SWP (Southern Cook Islands, Society Islands, Austral Islands), NE SWP (Northern Cook Islands, E Kiribati: Line Islands, Marquesas, Tuamotu Archipelago, Gambier Islands, Pitcairn Islands). A tsunami can arrive within minutes of a tremor or earthquake. However James said it's not yet clear exactly where the tropical cyclone was heading. A Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone climatology and linkages to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Cyclone Yasa aims to New Zealand, Zazu shifts from Fiji southeastward. This guidance is useful for sub-seasonal regional tropical cyclone guidance (see http://www.meteo.nc/espro/previcycl/cyclA.php.) The season lasts from November 1 to April 30, and comprises about 10 tropical cyclones in that period - only one of which will affect New Zealand on average, MetService says. The predicted track of Tropical Cyclone Uesi is towards New Caledonia. Table 2: The average number of TCs passing close to the main South Pacific Island groups between November and April based on analogue guidance, but contains subjective assessments in some cases to be consistent with the wishes of the national meteorological services involved in generating this regional outlook. Advice. News Item Content. It should be noted that there are only very minor differences in terms of the TC risk that are ascribed using the consensus method relative to previous years that used the analogue guidance supported by the dynamical guidance. The main TC genesis region is expected to lie within a band between 10 – 12°S (northwest of Vanuatu) to the west of the International Date Line but shifted slightly west of normal. For the coming 2020/21 season, the deterministic TCO-SP outlook for Southwest Pacific TC season suggests 9 named TCs will form (probable range of 7-10), indicating normal to below normal activity for the basin when compared with the 1981-2010 average of 11.4 TCs (Table 4 and Figure 9). Past seasons with conditions similar to present suggest several cyclones that develop could intensify to at least category 3 strength. Mr. Chris NobleManager, Severe Weather ServicesTCWC (Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre) WellingtonMetService New ZealandTel: +64 4 470 1175. Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to ... Cook subsequently made landfall on the Grande Terre Island of New Caledonia, between Houaïlou and Kouaoua at around 04:00 UTC (15:00 NCT) on April 10 where it started weakening due to frictional forces. The analogue guidance has one primary cluster of enhanced activity extending from the Coral Sea to the south of New Caledonia. Four of the five historic analogue seasons indicate more than one cyclone of category 4 strength or higher could occur. However, New Caledonia does experience a cyclone season from the end of November to May, with February to April being the most dangerous time. Cyclone Erica developed from a monsoonal trough on 4 March just off Queensland. NIWA says elevated tropical cyclone presence is expected in and around the Coral Sea and north Tasman Sea, especially during the late season between February and April.